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Reference-grade analysis of digital credit instruments, Bitcoin treasury strategy, and risk frameworks.

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Research Reports 4

  • TNR-2026-03
    STRC: An Assessment of Buybacks, Market Structure & Channel Sensitivity

    A test of whether Strategy's STRC buybacks drove the instrument's recovery toward par.

    PDF 30 pp · 5.9 MB v1.2

    Adrian Morris tests whether Strategy's STRC buybacks drove the instrument's recovery toward par. A 60-session variance attribution assigns most of STRC's explained daily-return variance to the other digital credit preferreds, MSTR ex-BTC and Bitcoin, a buyback proxy adds little explanatory fit, and the report weighs leverage as a plausible explanation for June's selloff.

  • TNR-2026-02
    Trust Is Civilization's Oldest Technology

    Civilization as a stack of trust technologies, with Bitcoin and digital credit as the next layers.

    PDF 10 pp · 368 KB v1.1

    Modern humans evolved to trust roughly 150 people. Everything past that ceiling, from money and contracts to corporations and central banks, is technology built to extend trust between strangers. This paper reads civilization as a stack of such technologies, each layer cheaper and more legible than the one beneath it: the oath, the seal, coined money, Roman law, the letter of credit, the joint-stock company, the central bank, Bretton Woods, and Bitcoin. Every layer was called fraud at launch. Every layer survived by lowering the cost of believing a stranger. The argument here is that the current architecture is cracking at the base, that Bitcoin delivers not trustlessness but legible trust, that Strategy proved an institution could stand on it, and that digital credit is the layer going in now.

  • SSRN 7201678
    Perpetual Preferred Equity Against Bitcoin: Required Coverage Across Observed Drawdowns

    Forward solvency measured by the Bitcoin Coverage Ratio, backtested across four observed drawdowns.

    SSRN DOI BCR Coverage SurfaceBCR Calculator

    The measure of forward solvency is the Bitcoin Coverage Ratio (BCR): BTC reserve value over annual dividend obligation, in years of forward coverage. Backtested across four observed Bitcoin drawdowns, with an interactive coverage surface.

    DOI https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7201678

  • TNR-2026-01
    Sentiment as Substrate: An Expanded Theory For Markets & Valuation

    Sentiment as the constitutive substrate of price formation, not a distortion of an objective market.

    PDF 39 pp · 324 KB 13 chapters

    This essay argues that sentiment is not a distortion of an unbiased, objective market but the constitutive substrate of price formation. Through a systematic examination of valuation methodologies and mechanics, the essay demonstrates that financial data remains inert without narrative context and that valuation multiples measure the distance collective belief has drifted from parity benchmarks rooted in mathematical identity or market convention.

From the Digital Credit Hub

Analysis & Commentary 36

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