$4,000+ per share for MSTR in five years?

That might actually be the low scenario.

Over the last five years, Strategy’s stock didn’t just track Bitcoin. It amplified the economic value of Bitcoin per share.

So instead of arguing about narratives, multiples, or sentiment, I built a very simple model around one question:

What happens if Bitcoin per Share keeps growing, but at more conservative rates than the past?

The result for 2030

• Low case: ~$2,500/share
• Medium case: ~$5,700/share
• High case: ~$11,000/share

And that’s using assumptions below historical averages.

The model uses only four inputs

• BTC CAGR How fast Strategy grows total Bitcoin holdings.
• Share count CAGR How fast dilution increases shares outstanding.
• BTC price CAGR How fast Bitcoin itself appreciates.
• Terminal BTC-per-share value multiple What multiple the market assigns to the dollar value of Bitcoin per share.

That’s it.

Everything else is arithmetic.

Strategy 2025 Q4

Why BTC per share is the only KPI that matters

Strategy’s entire model reduces to a single equation:

BTC per share = BTC held ÷ shares outstanding

If:

• BTC held grows faster than shares outstanding
• BTC per share rises

If:

• Shares outstanding grow faster than BTC held
• BTC per share falls

This is the core invariant.

The New Part

BTC per share × BTC price = economic Bitcoin value per share

And then:

Economic BTC value per share × market multiple = stock price

The historical baseline

From December 2020 to December 2025:

• BTC-per-share value rose from $21 to $256
• That’s roughly a 12× increase in BTC-per-share economic value over five years.

During that same period:

• Average BTC growth: ~16% per quarter
• Equivalent annual growth: ~60%+

So the question becomes:

What if the future is slower than the past?

Projection scenarios (5-year horizon)

Low scenario (intentionally conservative)

• BTC CAGR: 20%
• Share dilution: 10%
• BTC price CAGR: 10%
• Terminal multiple: 4×(one-third of the historical 12×)

Result in 2030:

~$2,500 per share

Even with:

• Slower BTC accumulation
• Higher dilution
• Lower BTC price growth
• And a drastically reduced multiple

The stock still compounds significantly.

Medium scenario (below historical trends)

• BTC CAGR: 30%
• Share dilution: 15%
• BTC price CAGR: 15%
• Terminal multiple: 6×(half the historical level)

Result in 2030:

~$5,700 per share

This assumes:

• Slower BTC growth than historical
• Higher dilution than historical
• And a smaller terminal multiple

Yet the stock still clears $4,000 comfortably.

High scenario (still not heroic)

• BTC CAGR: 40%
• Share dilution: 20%
• BTC price CAGR: 20%
• Terminal multiple: 8×(still below the historical 12×)

Result in 2030:

~$11,000 per share

Not based on peak prices.

Not based on all-time highs.

Just quarter-end data and conservative assumptions.

Why the $4,000 number is actually a low anchor

Because:

• Historical BTC-per-share multiple: 12×
• Medium case multiple: 6×
• High case multiple: 8×

In other words:

Every scenario assumes diminished returns.

And yet the medium case still exceeds $4,000.

What this model intentionally leaves out

This is not a full corporate valuation.

It does not model:

• Preferred dividends
• Cash balances
• Debt structure
• Operating business value

Why?

Because this is a BTC-per-share compounding model, not an enterprise Discounted Cash Flow.

Strategy already holds:

• Multi-year liquidity for preferred obligations
• Significant Bitcoin reserves relative to liabilities

So the dominant driver of long-term equity value remains:

BTC per share growth. Everything else is second-order.

The important takeaway

You don’t need heroic assumptions. Did you think at the end of 2023 that Strategy would acquire 500,000 Bitcoins in 2 years? I didn’t.

You just need:

• BTC growing faster than share dilution
• And a terminal multiple lower than history

Even then:

$4,000 isn’t aggressive. It’s closer to the conservative case.

If you disagree, change the inputs in the AI of your choice and post your projections.