STRC, Bitcoin's Exponential Pump, MSTR to 20k & BTC to 5MM — Money, The Perfect Product

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it.” - Albert Einstein

I’ll start by offering a time horizon for investors: 12 years.

Why 12 years? Because it marks the end of the “Digital Gold Rush.”

Strategy’s Business model is twofold:

1. Acquire as much Bitcoin as possible in order to benefit from Bitcoin’s future price appreciation via capital markets transactions.
2. Construct the world’s greatest fixed income instruments, backed by Bitcoin, providing leverage to common holders, while putting a perpetual bid under Bitcoin.

Let’s first reference Saylor’s Bitcoin Model. So far, it has been quite accurate. We will use this model, in combination with the Power Law, as our best guess at Bitcoin’s price along its adoption curve.

The main differences between these two models are their terminal CAGRs (Compound Annual Growth Rates).

Saylor assumes a terminal 20% growth rate in BTC.

The Power Law assumes a declining growth rate over time 20% down to 10%.

Thesis: The success of STRC may be the determining factor in sustaining Bitcoin price at a constant exponential rate.

Whether it be Saylor’s model or The Power Law, these models forecast roughly a 30% annual rate of return for Bitcoin over the next decade, resulting in a Bitcoin price of $1.5MM by 2035.

I will now argue that the actions Strategy is taking via balance sheet expansion at 1X MNAV combined with issuance of STRC ATM could push BTC into exponential growth territory after the Bitcoin gold rush.

Based on various analyst expectations, the Bitcoin circulating supply is around 16.5MM.

At 709,715 Bitcoin, Strategy holds about 4.3% of the current Bitcoin supply in circulation.

The model below includes the following assumptions:

1. Common Equity issuance is used to pay the annual dividend obligations on the preferred equity which carries a 10% cost of capital.
2. Strategy maintains a 30% amplification ratio while convertible notes roll off the balance sheet.
3. Strategy raises 2B of equity per month for the next 3 years to purchase Bitcoin.
4. Strategy continues to trade at 1X MNAV.

Please look closely at the above model, specifically the 2038 figures.

They are astonishingly large; a $10T MSTR market cap and a $3.5T Preferred Equity market cap.

The key here is that based on power law Bitcoin growth, the model assumes that Strategy acquires nearly 6MM Bitcoin. This represents roughly 37.5% of the fully circulating outstanding Bitcoin supply.

Now I don’t believe that Strategy will ever be able to own such a large portion of the Bitcoin network. So what gives?

There are two variables that could change:

1. Demand for STRC
2. The price of Bitcoin itself

The BEAR CASE (scenario #1), negligence by management (over leveraging the capital structure) or Bitcoin’s underperformance may lead to the drying up of STRC demand. In such a scenario, BTC’s rate of return will likely be below that of STRC’s dividend and both Bitcoin and STRC die an inglorious death.

The BULL CASE (scenario #2), Bitcoin continues on at a rate of return higher than the yield offered by STRC, resulting in the continued success of both assets.

Bitcoin’s continued performance ensures continued demand for STRC & STRC’s success pushes Bitcoin’s price into exponential price discovery.

This is reflexive. The performance of Bitcoin ensures STRC’s success, STRC’s success, adds exponential pressure on Bitcoin. Therefore, I believe that Saylor’s model for exponential Bitcoin returns at some point in the future is in fact realistic, since STRC facilitates it.

What’s Changed?

Now that Strategy has demonstrated that it is willing to issue common equity at book value to expand their collateral…

The amplification ratio no longer provides an upward bound on the amount of STRC that Strategy can issue.

This dynamic is what allows strategy to issue as much STRC as there is demand for it, putting a perpetual bid under BTC. The demand for STRC, I will argue, is unlimited.

And therefore Bitcoin’s price will likely turn exponential.

I will conclude with the following answer to the hypothetical question…

“What if there is no demand for STRC?”

My answer to you is that there is a multi Trillion dollar Wealth Management industry all trying to achieve 11% annualized returns.

There is no upward bound on the demand for a product solves everyone’s investment product.

That’s all for today.

-Dan