STRC ATM Tracker

This tracker estimates how much Bitcoin Strategy (MSTR) is likely acquiring through its STRC At-The-Market (ATM) program. STRC is Strategy's Variable-Rate Preferred Stock, traded on NASDAQ. When STRC trades above its $100 par value, Strategy can issue new shares into the open market and use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin.

Data Pipeline

1. Minute bars — STRC OHLCV data is sourced from real-time equity market feeds at 1-minute resolution, including extended hours (4:00 AM – 8:00 PM ET). Each bar includes volume-weighted average price (VWAP), trade count, and standard OHLC.
2. ATM-eligible volume — Each bar's volume is weighted by a graduated correction factor based on its VWAP. Bars with VWAP above $100.00 are weighted at 100%. At exactly $100.000 the weight is 88%. Between $99.990 and $99.999, fractional weights range from 5% to 94% based on a statistical model of ATM execution patterns near par. Bars with VWAP below $99.990 are excluded entirely.
3. Capture ratio — A percentage of ATM-eligible volume is attributed to actual ATM issuance. Not all volume above par is new issuance — existing shares also trade above par in the secondary market. The default 70% capture rate is calibrated against SEC-confirmed 8-K filing data. Historical confirmed capture rates have ranged from approximately 15% to 70%, with recent high-volume weeks consistently near 70% — the Mar 30–Apr 5 filing reconciled to ~64% and Apr 6–12 to ~70%. As STRC matures and trades consistently at par, capture rates have trended upward. The three scenarios (40% conservative, 55% moderate, 70% calibrated) let users model different assumptions; the 70% calibrated preset is the default because it most closely matches recent reconciled filings.

   Historical confirmed capture rates have ranged from 28% to 67%, with higher rates during periods of heavy ATM activity. The 40% Conservative preset covers typical slow weeks, while the 70% Calibrated preset matches high-volume active issuance periods when the tracker is most heavily used.

4. Proceeds and BTC — Gross proceeds = eligible volume × VWAP. Net proceeds = gross × 98% (up to 2.0% selling commission per the ATM sales agreement). The actual commission on large volume weeks may be lower than 2%. Our model uses the maximum contractual rate as a conservative assumption. Estimated BTC = net proceeds ÷ current BTC price.

   True North uses the 2.0% maximum contractual commission rate from the ATM sales agreement for all estimates. Actual commissions have been as low as ~0.15% — for example, the Apr 6–12 filing shows $1,002.8M notional → $1,001.3M net, implying a $1.5M commission. Effective rates vary by period and may be higher during lower-volume weeks. This means our net proceeds estimates are deliberately understated, which is the conservative and responsible direction for an estimation tool.

True North's estimates are frozen at Friday close — we show you what we projected before the filing confirmed it. Some trackers update their displayed "estimate" after Strategy's Monday 8-K lands, making their weekly accuracy trivially 100% by construction. Our Est. vs Actual column in the filing history table shows how our pre-filing estimate compared to the confirmed result, every week, transparently. The Realized column shows Strategy's actual capture rate, independent of our model.

Price Correction Model

For bars with VWAP between $99.990 and $100.000, a fractional correction is applied to estimate the probability that volume at a given price level represents ATM issuance vs secondary trading. These correction factors are model assumptions, not empirically derived. This addresses market microstructure effects where sub-penny pricing, order routing, and rounding can create VWAP readings just below the par threshold.

Verification

Strategy files an SEC 8-K form approximately weekly, disclosing the actual number of STRC shares sold, net proceeds received, and average BTC price during the filing period. These SEC-confirmed figures are displayed in the Filing History table. The implied BTC column is derived from confirmed proceeds divided by the reported average BTC price — it is not directly reported by the SEC. Estimates are compared against these filings when available to help calibrate the capture ratio over time.

Limitations

• Estimates are based on aggregate volume data, not individual trade-level data
• The capture ratio is an approximation — actual ATM activity cannot be identified from public market data alone
• Extended hours volume may have different ATM characteristics than regular trading hours
• BTC price used for conversion is the current spot price, not the price at which Strategy actually executed
• Strategy may accumulate BTC through other instruments (MSTR ATM, convertible note proceeds) not tracked here

Data Sources

• Equity market data: Real-time market feeds with multiple provider fallbacks
• BTC price: Live cryptocurrency pricing data
• Credit stack: Strategy Inc.'s public disclosures
• SEC filings: SEC EDGAR

STRC is one of several instruments Strategy uses to fund Bitcoin acquisitions. The STRC ATM program is particularly significant because of its scale — with over 85 million shares outstanding and $8.5B+ in notional value, STRC is the largest preferred instrument in Strategy's credit stack and the single largest source of ongoing BTC acquisition capital.

When STRC trades above $100 par, Strategy's ATM agent sells newly issued shares into the market. The net proceeds (after up to 2.0% commission) flow to Strategy, which uses them to purchase Bitcoin. This creates a direct link between STRC trading volume above par and Bitcoin accumulation — which is what this tracker estimates.

For the full picture of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings and valuation metrics, see the Treasury Tracker. For analysis of Strategy's broader Bitcoin treasury strategy, see our MSTR Analysis topic hub.