About This Episode
This week on The Hurdle Rate: Adam Livingston joins Strive as VP of Investments, Strategy buys back $139 million of STRC with stretch back near 99, and Strive adds 469 Bitcoin at an average cost of $77,954 while hitting an all-time high market cap of $2.75 billion. Jeff makes the case that trust is the real infrastructure of capital markets, and why Bitcoin makes that trust legible. We get into the Clarity Act, AI doomerism, and why the crew thinks the frontier labs are using fear to build a moat ahead of their IPOs. Matt takes macro with the 10-year touching 5%, what a short-term Bitcoin flush would actually look like, and why it would be the dream setup. We close with a capital markets recap and Strive’s one-year anniversary. Here’s the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, Adam Livingston, and Tim Kotzman.
In This Episode
- 00:01:17 — Adam Livingston Joins Strive
- 00:08:52 — Trust as Capital Markets Infrastructure
- 00:19:48 — The Amplified Bitcoin Story and SATA
- 00:22:44 — Building Through the Bear Market
- 00:24:54 — An Outsider’s View of Strive
- 00:28:35 — The Clarity Act and Regulatory Trust
- 00:36:23 — AI Doomerism and the Messy Middle
- 00:45:03 — Don’t Let the Ladder Get Pulled Up
- 00:51:28 — Macro: The 10-Year Touches 5%
- 00:55:27 — What a Bitcoin Flush Would Look Like
- 01:01:46 — Capital Markets Recap
Episode Summary
Key Themes: Adam Livingston joins Strive; transparency & trust; SATA track record; CLARITY Act; AI doomerism; Treasury yields; capital markets execution; STRC near par.
Adam Livingston Joins Strive
Strive welcomed Adam Livingston as VP of Investments. Matt said Adam stood out because his public analysis often matched Strive’s internal work despite lacking access to proprietary data. Adam will work closely with Ben and the investment team while continuing to communicate publicly, reflecting Strive’s model of operators explaining the work they are actually doing on podcasts.
Communication Builds Trust
Jeff argued that regular communication is becoming a competitive advantage. Weekly podcasts, public research and frequent balance sheet updates show investors how management thinks and responds when markets become difficult. Strive continued communicating when SATA and ASST were under pressure rather than disappearing during the bear market, helping establish a track record.
Trust Expands Optionality
Matt offered SATA as a concrete example. When Strive launched it, investors wanted restrictions preventing issuance when amplification exceeds roughly 25–30%. Strive rejected that constraint. Less than a year later, after investors watched Strive manage its Bitcoin, cash, liquidity and capital structure through a significant drawdown, institutions became comfortable with amplification above 50%. Trust increased the flexibility investors were willing to give management.
The Bear Market Built the Track Record
Ben said Strive’s difficult first year may ultimately have been useful. Investors watched the company continue buying Bitcoin, paying SATA dividends and strengthening its structure through a roughly 50% Bitcoin drawdown. Periods of stress reveal whether management can make unpopular decisions, preserve liquidity and remain positioned for recovery.
Regulation Can Make Trust Cheaper
Jeff framed the CLARITY Act as more than a crypto regulation bill. Clear rules reduce the cost of trust because banks and institutions know how they may interact with digital assets. The proposal does not directly rewrite bank risk weighting rules, but regulatory clarity could influence how Bitcoin is treated throughout the financial system.
Clarity Beats Regulation by Enforcement
Matt contrasted that framework with “regulation by enforcement,” where companies could receive little guidance and later face enforcement action. Even strict rules are preferable to uncertainty because businesses can plan around known constraints. The group was cautiously optimistic about the CLARITY Act while acknowledging passage could still slip into 2027.
AI Doomerism Misses the Upside
Matt rejected extreme AI extinction scenarios while acknowledging that every major technology creates a “messy middle” where real failures and frightening incidents occur. Cars kill people but also save lives and increase productivity; he expects AI to follow a similar pattern, creating disruption while ultimately producing much greater benefits.
Do Not Pull Up the AI Ladder
The group was skeptical of frontier AI companies calling for restrictions that could disadvantage smaller competitors and open source developers. Matt argued that concentrating AI capability inside a handful of regulated companies would create its own danger. Competition and open source alternatives should remain viable while genuine risks are addressed.
Prepare for Volatility Without Giving Up the Upside
The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5%, reinforcing Matt’s view that long-end rates remain under pressure. He expects policymakers eventually to intervene if yields become sufficiently disruptive. A more extreme move toward 7% could temporarily crush risk assets before triggering a massive liquidity response that could ultimately be highly bullish for Bitcoin.
Trust Includes Discussing the Downside
Matt said transparency also means discussing low-probability negative scenarios before they happen. Strive is not positioning primarily for a Bitcoin collapse or Treasury crisis, but its debt-free structure is designed to survive one. A temporary Bitcoin drawdown into the $40,000–$50,000 range would not invalidate the long-term thesis.
SATA Funds the Bitcoin Purchases
Strive reached exactly 25,000 Bitcoin after acquiring another 469 BTC. The company raised no capital through its common stock ATM during the prior week; all capital deployed into Bitcoin came through SATA issuance. Management remains patient with ASST while absorbing SATA demand near $100 and preserving amplification.
STRC Nears Par
Strategy repurchased roughly another $139 million of STRC as the preferred moved back toward $99. The group expects buybacks to become less necessary as organic demand returns near par. Ben described the process as rightsizing the roughly $10 billion security after the summer’s forced selling, allowing Strategy to eventually resume using STRC more effectively to finance Bitcoin purchases.
Main Takeaway: Strive views trust—earned via transparency, execution, resilience and track record—as a core asset that gives Strive and Strategy the flexibility to scale digital credit, preserve amplification and navigate a volatile macro and technological environment.