About This Episode
The crew is back to reflect on 2025, discuss The Bitcoin Era, amplification and the power of compounding, the year of Bitcoin Treasuries, and much more.
In This Episode
- 00:01:51 — Reflections on 2025
- 00:08:44 — The Bitcoin Era
- 00:18:42 — Amplification and the Power of Compounding
- 00:31:00 — Do You Beat The Hurdle Rate of Bitcoin?
- 00:53:34 — Tim’s Review of Bitcoin Treasuries Big Year
Episode Summary
Key Themes: 2025 year in review; structural progress; the power of compounding & decision making; Bitcoin’s fixed supply; optimistic mindset for 2026 and beyond.
2025: Foundational Year for Strive & Bitcoin Treasury Companies
The team reflects on how much changed since this time last year: Matt hadn’t met everyone, Strive wasn’t a Bitcoin treasury company, fair-value accounting wasn’t introduced and perpetual preferreds and today’s balance sheet structures didn’t exist yet. In just ~100 as a public company, Strive executed a reverse merger, launched SATA and pursued the acquisition of SMLR. They framed 2025 as structurally foundational for Bitcoin treasuries, laying the groundwork for years to come, even if price action underwhelmed.
The Biggest Story in Finance
Jeff reiterated that Bitcoin is the “hurdle rate” and core collateral for balance sheets, enabling more transparent structures than traditional finance. Ben noted that Strategy’s $748 million raise barely registering as news shows how fast the industry is accelerating. Matt added that legacy finance still misunderstands Bitcoin treasury companies as ETFs, while they are rapidly accelerating further in the direction of operating businesses, creating products built on Bitcoin—what he sees, using Jeff’s phrase, as “the biggest story in all of finance.” To highlight how underappreciated the Bitcoin treasury story still is, Jeff emphasized that Strategy has now acquired more capital than the centuries-old insurance giant Lloyd’s of London.
Compounding Good Decisions
Matt explained that Strategy’s rise shows the power of compounding of amplification: “boring” early years of leverage snowball into outsized capital, surpassing Lloyd’s of London. He added that good decisions on top of Bitcoin—an already compounding asset—also compound, resulting in nonlinear outcomes that leave trad-fi “bewildered.” Ben commented on Strategy’s decision to restructure from purely “high-octane Bitcoin” to a twin-engine model of amplified common equity and stable, yield-generating preferreds with a USD reserve. He added that this reassures non-Bitcoin-native investors while still channeling Bitcoin. Jeff concluded that following in Strategy’s footsteps, other Bitcoin treasury firms will emerge over the next few years, as their value compounds, with financial power versus legacy peers, especially as AI disrupts weaker businesses.
Many Models, One Hurdle Rate
Ben noted that Bitcoin treasuries are splintering into different operating models (e.g. XXI Capital not pursuing prefs), but that that’s not necessarily a bad thing as there can be multiple paths to integrate Bitcoin into finance. Jeff and Matt tied it back to the same filter: Bitcoin-backed capital can fund different models, but any new venture must clear the hurdle rate, which forces ruthless focus.
Saylor’s Share-of-Supply Framing & Why It Matters
Tim flagged Saylor’s claim that as Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings grow from ~3.2% of the supply to ~5% and ~7.5%, Bitcoin would reach $1M and $10M, respectively. Jeff likes his framing because it contrasts a shrinking future supply (only 1% left to mine after 2032) with growing incentives for corporations to accumulate and hold Bitcoin. Ben agreed, added that Bitcoin could hit $1M faster than people expect since supply cap is fixed and future supply is shrinking while global demand (from millionaires, companies and ETFs) can surge suddenly as people look for a non-sovereign store of value. Matt agreed too and highlighted that with ~1.4M BTC already in ETFs and many large pools of capital only now getting access, demand can easily outrun new supply in a “digital gold rush,” bolstering the “supercycle” case even if short-term price remains unpredictable.
Bitcoin Builds Optimism
Matt contrasted fixed income thinking (smart, but pessimistic) with the optimistic builder mindset of Bitcoin treasury companies. Jeff agreed from his insurance background. Ben added that building around Bitcoin is the biggest, most exciting thing to build right now: accumulating capital in a digital gold rush and strengthening balance sheets for an unknowable future full of optionality is optimistic and energizing. Jeff & Ben also suggested that a generational handoff of wealth to younger, more tech-native and system-skeptical decision-makers could accelerate Bitcoin adoption, making Bitcoin a logical treasury asset that enables applying a longer-term, “generational” mindset toward running companies.
“Just Do Things”
Tim recapped his eventful year, and the team commended his “just do things” and “announce it, then build it” mentality, and how it serves as proof that Bitcoin attracts likeminded people focused on building.
Main Takeaway: 2025 was the year Bitcoin treasuries built the structural, capital and cultural foundations for a far larger Bitcoin-native financial system in the decades ahead.