Bitcoin24 Calculator

The Bitcoin24 model is a 21-year macro forecasting framework for Bitcoin price appreciation, created by Michael J. Saylor (Executive Chairman of Strategy — formerly MicroStrategy), Shirish Jajodia, and Chaitanya Jain. It was first presented at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville in July 2024, then open-sourced on GitHub on August 30, 2024.

Unlike simple price predictions, Bitcoin24 is a scenario-planning framework. It models three cases — Bear (Conservative), Base, and Bull (Aggressive) — each defined by a starting growth rate, an annual rate of decline, and a terminal floor rate. The model projects Bitcoin's fair value from 2024 through 2045, tracking its growing share of global wealth across seven major asset classes.

Saylor used this model in his presentation to the Microsoft board of directors in December 2024, making the case for corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies. The open-source spreadsheet has earned over 500 stars on GitHub and has become a reference tool for institutional investors evaluating long-term Bitcoin exposure.

At its core, the Bitcoin24 model uses a four-parameter decelerating growth structure. Rather than assuming Bitcoin grows at a flat compound annual growth rate (CAGR), it models growth that starts high and declines year over year until reaching a floor — what the model calls the "terminal" or "steady state" annual return rate.

In plain terms: explosive early growth that slows as Bitcoin matures. The growth rate for each year is computed by taking the previous year's rate and subtracting the annual decline value, with the result floored at the terminal rate. This creates a declining-ARR compounding structure — more realistic than flat CAGR models because it reflects the natural deceleration of maturing asset classes.

For example, in the base case: Bitcoin starts with a 50% annual growth rate in 2025, declining by 2.5 percentage points per year, until it reaches 20% in 2037. From 2037 to 2045, it compounds at that steady 20% rate. The result: $65K grows to $13.4M over 21 years — a 28.9% blended CAGR.

This calculator implements the exact formulas from the original Bitcoin24 v1.0.xlsm spreadsheet, including the full seven-asset-class macro model that tracks Gold, Art, Equity, Real Estate, Bonds, and Currency alongside Bitcoin — showing Bitcoin's evolving share of total global wealth.

The three preset scenarios span a wide range of outcomes, reflecting genuine uncertainty about Bitcoin's trajectory over two decades. Each scenario is defined by its growth parameters but is most meaningfully understood in terms of Bitcoin's relationship to global wealth.

The base case — Bitcoin at roughly 7% of global wealth — is particularly notable because gold currently holds approximately 7–8% of measurable personal wealth. In this scenario, Bitcoin essentially achieves gold parity in terms of global asset share. The bear case implies Bitcoin remains a meaningful but sub-gold asset. The bull case implies Bitcoin becomes the dominant monetary asset class globally — a scenario that would reshape digital credit markets and institutional capital flows.