About This Episode
The crew is back with the latest including discussion on Strive’s major announcment, the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Intel and the US government, and an update on the Bitcoin Treasuries Unconference. Avik Roy BTC Digital Conference
In This Episode
- 00:01:15 — Meet The Hurdle Rate’s First Guest Host, Avik Roy
- 00:03:14 — Strive’s Major News Announcement
- 00:09:10 — The Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole
- 00:30:29 — Intel & The US Government
- 00:57:03 — Update on Tim’s Unconference
Episode Summary
Key Themes: Strive’s go-public vote; dovish Fed shift and debt reality; Bitcoin-backed credit in low-rate world; Intel and industrial policy; Bitcoin adoption as strategic resilience.
Strive Vote Goes Live
Strive announced that its reverse merger vote is now live. Matt explained that the “quiet period” was months of regulatory work, filings, comments, revisions and legal coordination. He said the shareholder meeting is set for September 9, that 40% of the vote is already contractually committed in favor and that if the vote passes, the transaction should close quickly after. Ben emphasized how much work goes into these deals before the public sees anything, while Avik said joining the Strive board is one of the most exciting things he’s doing.
Jackson Hole: The Fed Shows Its Priorities
Matt argued the Fed’s real priorities are not its stated ones. In his view, the true hierarchy is: first, keep the Treasury market functioning; second, support employment; third, control inflation. Avik agreed and added that this has been the pattern for years: the Fed tolerates asset inflation so long as consumer price inflation appears manageable, assuming liquidity can clean up problems later.
Debt, Mandates and Why Lower Rates Are Likely
Avik said Powell was caught between still-high inflation and a softening labor market, and that this conflict will define the coming decade as debt burdens grow. Matt argued none of this fixes the structural problem because the U.S. still refuses fiscal discipline. Ben added that the amount of short-term debt needing to roll over, plus housing strain, makes lower rates increasingly hard to avoid. The group’s broad view was that rates are headed lower even if the path is uneven.
What That Means for Bitcoin-Backed Credit
Matt said a dovish Fed usually pushes fixed-income investors out the risk curve, which should ultimately benefit Bitcoin-backed credit instruments. He argued that if these products keep succeeding, issuers should not need to pay today’s unusually high spreads forever. Avik added that easier policy can also lift equity multiples, which matters because higher common-stock values are a funding resource for Bitcoin treasury companies.
Intel’s 10% Government Stake
On Intel, Avik was skeptical that subsidies can restore semiconductor dominance, pointing to China’s failed attempts to brute-force its way into chip leadership. Matt argued this was not a forced takeover but a struggling company willingly taking strategic support it could not get elsewhere on similar terms. His bottom line: he would rather the government receive an ownership stake than hand over money for nothing, but he remains doubtful the investment changes Intel’s underlying competitive position.
Does This Raise Bitcoin Seizure Risk?
Ben raised the question of whether the Intel move makes intervention in Bitcoin treasury companies more likely. Matt said no: Intel wanted the deal, which makes it very different from a seizure scenario. He argued the U.S. is already relatively “Bitcoin rich” through its citizens and corporations, making seizure less likely than in weaker jurisdictions. In his view, the more plausible path is deregulation and competition to make the U.S. the Bitcoin capital.
Bitcoin Adoption as Strategic Resilience
Avik said the real long-term goal is not government-owned Bitcoin, but broad Bitcoin adoption across American markets and institutions. The more people own Bitcoin directly, hold it in portfolios or gain exposure through companies, the harder it becomes politically to attack. He added that resilience also requires censorship-resistant ways to move between fiat and Bitcoin, not just censorship-resistant Bitcoin itself. Matt tied that back to self-custody as the foundation that Bitcoin treasury companies should reinforce, not replace.
Main Takeaway: Both the Fed and State are revealing what they really prioritize, making Bitcoin more strategically important as debt rises, policy gets looser and institutions lose credibility.