In Episode 52, True North Episode 52 - Up To Par Agenda: 1. Key discussion points include stretch price behavior, balance sheet strategy, capital structure model, yield curve control, supply discipline approach. Market context: MSTR closed at $163.81 with mNAV at ~1.07.
Market Snapshot
- MSTR Open/Close: $161.27 / $163.81
- Volume: 18,440,820 Shares
- mNAV: ~1.07
- Market Cap: ~$54.09B
- U.S. Market Cap Rank: 201
- BTC Held: 709,715
Chapters
- 00:00:00 — Intro: NFA, agenda and True North overview
- 00:02:09 — Stretch price behavior: Volatility compression versus Bitcoin
- 00:04:18 — Balance sheet strategy: 1x mNAV and ATM expansion logic
- 00:06:49 — Capital structure model: Bitcoin, equity, credit flywheel
- 00:09:43 — Yield curve control: Variable dividend preferred mechanics
- 00:11:07 — Supply discipline approach: Peg defense and issuance limits
- 00:13:30 — Rate cut asymmetry: Falling rates boost credit spread
- 00:15:27 — TN event: join the crew in Las Vegas
- 00:16:51 — Fiscal dominance reality: Structural US deficit regime
- 00:20:05 — Monetary financing loop: Deficits force money creation
- 00:23:10 — Debt compounding risk: Interest burden and debasement cycle
- 00:26:46 — Product market fit: Stretch outperforming other credit tools
- 00:29:37 — Fiscal responsibility debate: Fed, deficits, real rate risk
- 00:32:17 — Bitcoin-backed credit thesis: Alternative to sovereign bonds
- 00:34:10 — Capital raise capacity: ATM runway and mNAV leverage
- 00:36:33 — mNAV leverage durability: Dividend funding in bear markets
- 00:38:17 — Global macro signal: Japan rates and carry trade unwind
- 00:43:34 — Generational capital shift: Exiting legacy financial assets
- 00:45:33 — Ray Dalio perspective: Bitcoin versus gold debate
- 00:48:45 — Macro landing scenarios: Debasement versus crisis outcomes
- 00:53:00 — Bitcoin moat math: Relative ownership and scarcity
- 00:56:17 — Convert dilution dynamics: Delta hedging fade thesis
- 00:57:06 — Bull case modeling: Million Bitcoin accumulation path
- 00:59:30 — Long-term supply capture: 2035 Bitcoin ownership projection
- 01:03:01 — MNAV upside bounds: Convert structure constraints
- 01:04:30 — Final thoughts:
Stay on Course. Get the Signal.
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