Rate My Stock / Risk of Credit

In Episode 43, True North Episode 43 - “Rate my stock/Risk of credit” Agenda 1. Key discussion points include bitcoin capital structure, downside risk, s&p rating, collateral bias, liquidity hierarchy. Market context: MSTR closed at $275.36 with mNAV at ~1.35.

Market Snapshot

• Date: 10/29/25
• MSTR Open/Close: $284.38 / $275.36
• Volume: 10,184,060 shares
• mNAV: ~1.35
• Market Cap: ~$79.08B
• U.S. Market Cap Rank: 134
• BTC Held: 640,808

Chapters

• 00:00:00 — Cue the music: Agenda, mission statement and NFA
• 00:03:14 — Bitcoin Capital Structure: Assets, leverage, and dividend coverage
• 00:04:45 — Downside Risk: Asset strength and the balance sheet’s potential reaction to BTC price drops
• 00:06:56 — S&P Rating: Bitcoin gets zero credit
• 00:10:02 — Collateral Bias: Real estate vs Bitcoin treatment
• 00:11:47 — Liquidity Hierarchy: BTC as backstop, rating vs capital reality
• 00:13:48 — Credit Ratings Disconnect: Asset strength vs market perception
• 00:17:16 — Liquidity Fallacy: DVDs, bonds, and Bitcoin
• 00:19:50 — You can’t rate something you’ve never sold?: Grain knows best
• 00:22:23 — Asset Yield: Real estate vs Bitcoin income
• 00:25:00 — Arbitrage Thesis: BTC vs CPI and USD melt
• 00:26:44 — Credit Strategy: 20% BTC as loan collateral
• 00:28:07 — Bitcoin as Value Store: Wealth behavior explained
• 00:30:34 — Subsidized Real Estate: Tax code vs digital assets
• 00:31:53 — Amazon Layoffs: AI vs labor and cost structure
• 00:33:30 — Creative Destruction: Wikipedia vs Grokpedia
• 00:36:30 — Investing in AI: Gold, treasuries, or Bitcoin
• 00:37:58 — Debasement Trade: Picking long-term winners
• 00:40:30 — White-Collar Shock: AI disrupting high earners
• 00:42:34 — Sticky Labor: Hiring freeze vs layoffs
• 00:43:42 — Economic Bifurcation: Utopia or dystopia ahead
• 00:46:10 — Productivity Divide: Asset owners vs displaced labor
• 00:47:46 — Money Printing: Masking AI-driven deflation
• 00:49:13 — Bitcoin Disruption: Strategy and bond market impact
• 00:50:34 — Value Flow: AI output into scarce assets
• 00:51:43 — Household AI: Autonomous agents as labor shift
• 00:56:19 — Scarcity Signaling: Luxury goods and digital value
• 00:57:25 — Digital Credit: Yield definitions and legal nuance
• 00:59:11 — Return of Capital Strategy: Tax efficiency and long-term planning
• 01:05:48 — Investment Structure Leverage: Return of capital vs yield mechanics
• 01:08:05 — Global risk mispricing: Underwriting and simulating black swans
• 01:14:30 — Tax Implications of Growth: Regulatory risk with high adoption
• 01:16:40 — Credit Ratings Open Access: How ratings unlock capital pools
• 01:21:05 — Skepticism of High Yields: Understanding 15–20% annual returns
• 01:24:53 — Bitcoin Usability Debate: Utility vs store of value arguments
• 01:27:34 — Spending Bitcoin in Practice: Use cases and behavioral shifts
• 01:30:07 — Structured Notes and Bitcoin: Risk reduction using equity blends
• 01:34:40 — Bitcoin Black Swan Insurance: Quantifying catastrophic tail risk
• 01:37:07 — Bitcoin vs Altcoin Credit: Risk spreads in crypto-backed debt
• 01:40:27 — Risk is Just Math: Insurance roots and probability logic
• 01:43:29 — Bitcoin Cycle Skepticism: Macro links and market correlations
• 01:48:08 — Fear, Volatility, and Cycles: Debunking BTC equity drag theory
• 01:50:06 — Credit Expansion Mechanics: Leverage, interest rates, and debt
• 01:53:18 — Benchmarking Yield to Duration: Strife and Stretch yield logic
• 01:54:54 — Evolving Perspectives: Learning, adapting, and quantifying risk
• 01:56:16 — Final thoughts: