No days off

In Episode 38, True North Episode 38 - No Days Off Agenda: 1. Research. Key discussion points include macro indicators, spot btc positioning, duration gap, labor market & fed pivot, ai’s attack on jobs. Market context: MSTR closed at $342.06 with mNAV at ~1.56.

Market Snapshot

• Date: 8/27/25
• MSTR Open/Close: $348.68 / $342.06
• Volume: 8,379,611 shares
• mNAV: ~1.56
• Market Cap: ~$97.36B
• U.S. Market Cap Rank: 108
• BTC Held: 632,457

Chapters

• 00:00:00 — Intro: filtering out the noise and providing signal
• 00:03:19 — Macro Indicators: Services PMI ties to BTC moves
• 00:05:42 — Spot BTC Positioning: Low leverage, resilient long-term strategy
• 00:12:25 — Duration gap: what’s the next pref flavor to fill the gap
• 00:14:23 — Labor Market & Fed Pivot: Weak payrolls, yield curve, rate cut setup
• 00:18:55 — AI’s attack on jobs: Bitcoin is the only way to capture the deflationary effects
• 00:22:12 — Inflation Outlook & Fed: Tariffs, base case, policy shift
• 00:25:38 — Bitcoin vs Gold Thesis: BTC outperformance, gold lag on inflation
• 00:30:07 — MNAVs & Fear Index: Sentiment tools, credit signals, BTC risk
• 00:33:17 — Stretch Yield Mechanics: Monthly coupon, par targeting strategy
• 00:37:40 — S&P 500 Inclusion Odds: Market betting, mispriced probabilities
• 00:40:33 — BTC Valuation Frameworks: Miner breakevens, long-dated call logic
• 00:43:46 — MSTR Capital Forecast: Preferreds, ATM issuance, $175B growth thesis