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True North

High Powered Digital Money

December 10, 2025 • 01:05:31

In Episode 48, True North Episode 48 - High Powered Digital Money Agenda: 1. The β€œTwo Year Cycle” 2. Macro - Structural Bull Market 3. Strategy Mechanics - USD reserve & common MSTR. Key discussion points include event context, trend signals, higher-timeframe structure, multi-frame review, eps thresholds. Market context: MSTR closed at $184.64 with mNAV at ~0.92.

Market Snapshot

  • MSTR Open/Close: $189.32 / $184.64
  • Volume: 22,458,960 Shares
  • mNAV: ~0.92
  • Market Cap: ~$55.9B
  • U.S. Market Cap Rank: 190
  • BTC Held: 660,624

Chapters

  • 00:00:00 β€” Intro: NFA, agenda and True North overview
  • 00:03:10 β€” Event Context: Conviction, networking and market backdrop
  • 00:04:42 β€” Trend Signals: Chart mechanics, death cross and momentum turn
  • 00:08:10 β€” Higher-Timeframe Structure: Weekly levels, higher lows and trend context
  • 00:09:06 β€” Multi-Frame Review: Monthly and yearly recovery signals
  • 00:12:12 β€” EPS Thresholds: Required BTC price for positive earnings
  • 00:14:14 β€” Survey Momentum: Gauging ATH expectations and sentiment
  • 00:16:38 β€” Rate Regime Change: Volatility and QE effects
  • 00:18:14 β€” Supply Crunch Setup: ETF flows and treasury accumulation
  • 00:20:04 β€” Fed Signals: GDP revisions and future rate cuts
  • 00:22:00 β€” Productivity Shock: AI-driven deflation and policy response
  • 00:23:57 β€” Fiscal Strain: Debt path, shutdown risk and tax limits
  • 00:26:19 β€” Consumer Credit Stress: Debt stacking and inequality
  • 00:29:14 β€” Tech Concentration: MAG7 dominance and return skew
  • 00:32:45 β€” Hard Money Hedge: Bitcoin as monetary protection
  • 00:34:57 β€” Treasury Math: Why printing is structurally required
  • 00:37:39 β€” Policy Shifts: Pro-crypto Fed leadership probabilities
  • 00:38:36 β€” Collateral Upgrade: BTC/ETH/USDC for derivatives margin
  • 00:42:08 β€” Financial Engineering: Reserves, ratings and dividend strategy
  • 00:46:07 β€” Buyback Mechanics: Supply reduction and accretive impact
  • 00:48:06 β€” Treasury Strength: Dividend runway and BTC-backed reserves
  • 00:50:07 β€” Capital Stack: Prefs, converts and liquidation coverage
  • 00:52:05 β€” Indexing Rebuttal: Why digital treasuries aren’t funds
  • 00:55:51 β€” Investor Discipline: Fear cycles and recovery patterns
  • 00:57:54 β€” Reserve Strategy: Cash buffers for extended bear markets
  • 00:59:37 β€” Debt Spiral: Election-year constraints and forced rate cuts
  • 01:01:47 β€” Future Prep: Automation risk and asset-based resilience
  • 01:03:10 β€” Bitcoin Integration: Payments, emerging markets and rails
  • 01:04:20 β€” Final thoughts: Strategy World networking and key figures

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