In Episode 32, True North - Episode 32 - Everything’s Computer Credit 1. Key discussion points include agenda rundown, bitcoin leverage, law of large numbers, eoy btc holdings predictions, s&p 500 catalyst. Market context: MSTR closed at $415.41 with mNAV at ~1.96.
Market Snapshot
- Date: 7/9/25
- MSTR Open/Close: $401.60 / $415.41
- Volume: 13,065,370 shares
- mNAV: ~1.96
- Market Cap: ~$116B
- U.S. Market Cap Rank: 93
- BTC Held: 597,325
Chapters
- 00:00:00 — cue the music: reggae vibes
- 00:01:07 — agenda rundown:
- 00:03:51 — bitcoin leverage: MSTR’s capital stack and strategic asset breakdown
- 00:08:55 — law of large numbers: market dynamics and shifts in the playbook globally
- 00:16:50 — EOY BTC holdings predictions: reflecting on initial predictions & re-evaluating possibilities
- 00:19:05 — S&P 500 catalyst: capital surges and strategic timing with indexes
- 00:25:05 — credit hierarchy: analysis of the capital stack & the creation of the credit curve
- 00:27:48 — risk premium: preferreds closing in on the risk-free rate
- 00:32:10 — pricing curve: preferreds moving from distressed to fair value
- 00:40:44 — strike convertibility: upside, dividends, and embedded call options
- 00:49:11 — liquidation logic: how claim seniority impacts bitcoin instrument value
- 00:56:10 — investor psychology: simplicity and yield driving adoption of new tools
- 01:03:45 — capital stack math: bitcoin CAGR vs. risk-free rate over time
- 01:09:15 — software business hiring reflex: why bitcoin-focused firms attract top software talent
- 01:15:20 — $STRF architecture: CAGR assumptions that outpace risk-free rate indefinitely
- 01:17:30 — $MSTY obsession: risk/reward breakdown and the impact of slippage
- 01:24:40 — market evolution: strike as self-replicating perpetual call option & importance of scale
- 01:29:05 — index fuel: index inclusion as rocket fuel & MSTR’s scale advantage with BTC moat
- 01:34:20 — buybacks vs. bitcoin: what Apple and Chevron could’ve gained
- 01:46:35 — earnings per employee: the reality of earnings powered by Bitcoin
- 01:50:20 — final thoughts:
Stay on Course. Get the Signal.
Subscribe for livestream reminders, key insights, and the occasional alpha drop. Straight from True North.