In Episode 46, True North Episode 46 - “And Then They Fight You” Agenda 1. Key discussion points include btc price analysis, bitcoin leverage & transparency, entry strategy basics, real-time transparency, measuring balance sheet strength. Market context: MSTR closed at $175.64 with mNAV at ~1.13.
Market Snapshot
- MSTR Open/Close: $173.69 / $175.64
- Volume: 19,829,181 Shares
- mNAV: ~1.13
- Market Cap: ~$50.48B
- U.S. Market Cap Rank: 213
- BTC Held: 649,870
Chapters
- 00:00:00 — Cue the music and intro: Agenda and NFA disclaimer
- 00:04:13 — BTC price analysis: MACD signals, macro climate, and MSTR correlation
- 00:09:06 — Bitcoin leverage & transparency: Exposure math, long-term amplification, Strategy Tracker
- 00:12:37 — Entry Strategy Basics: Pricing discipline, tax implications, buying low
- 00:14:08 — Real-Time Transparency: 24/7 BTC metrics and unit-of-account shift
- 00:15:54 — Measuring balance sheet strength: Risk tolerance & TradFi valuation lens
- 00:19:46 — MSCI Index Shock: Digital-asset exclusions and capital-flow risk
- 00:24:14 — MSTR Short Hedging: Borrow costs, downside leverage, long-holder hedges
- 00:29:00 — JP Morgan Structured Note: Illiquidity, capped upside, principal risk
- 00:36:14 — Institutional Bitcoin Demand: ETFs, muni bonds, state treasury buying
- 00:41:05 — Stride vs Strife: Preferred structures, arbitrage spreads, levered beta
- 00:46:00 — Yield Mechanics: Bond pricing, collateral growth, preferred income
- 00:51:28 — Financial Engineering: Dividends, dilution math, capital efficiency
- 00:55:13 — Amplification and mNAV: SATs/share math, liquidation prefs, leverage
- 01:02:10 — Synthetic BTC Hedging: Downside structures, seller advantage
- 01:05:07 — mNAV Valuation Framework: Assets minus prefs, transparent accounting
- 01:09:39 — Corporate Arbitrage: EPS shaping, buybacks, equity issuance strategy
- 01:16:52 — Real Estate Parallel: Permanent equity, HELOC analogy, carry trades
- 01:20:25 — Scaling Capital Structure: Pref issuance, target leverage ratios
- 01:25:20 — Bitcoin CAGR Edge: Historical return percentiles, timing signals
- 01:30:10 — Volatility Compression: Market size, long-term BTC stability
- 01:34:09 — Institutional Signals: ETF options expansion, ratings pressure, state buys
- 01:38:50 — JP Morgan Influence Map: Margin shifts, index rules, contradictions
- 01:45:19 — Community Response: MSTR defense, liquidity lockouts, gamma setups
- 01:49:24 — Bitcoin Treasury Future: Issuance scale, compounding, long-run adoption
- 01:50:30 — Closing Remarks: Holiday sendoff and final outlook
Stay on Course. Get the Signal.
Subscribe for livestream reminders, key insights, and the occasional alpha drop. Straight from True North.